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Wednesday, December 26, 2007

回應網友: 成交量 II



首先股價要飛升,一定要貨源少同有好強大的demand。因為咁,通常d 大戶都要係低位收集,收到咁上下佢地要做d 股價上去,引人注意,個日通常都要有好大成交同股價比平時升得好多,引人注意。之後個股價通常都會係咁升,升到咁上下無d 大戶會慢慢散貨同你會見到d 成交量減少左d ,或者大成量但股價升唔到上去,之後股價就會開似跌。跌到某一點d人開始驚,就會係咁放貨,個時你會見到個日會成交大同大跌,個日一開始你就會俾supply主導,直到d 人放晒佢想d 貨為止,e 個會不斷不斷重環。睇圖~

由於大跌個時係d 人唔想要貨,所以有好多supply,睇圖要睇到d 成交量變得好少,咁會出到no supply個signal出現。你見到近日的HSI就因為無乜出貨,所以跌得好少,就開始係26000點到跌唔落去。當這個phase出現,要股價升就要係有demand。看圖一定要由頭看到尾明白晒成個圖的故仔,無supply的話已經可以話係貨源歸邊。所以只要有少少demand個股價就會升,唔需要好大的成交量去support個股價上升,而家個HSI就係咁樣慢慢升。不過去到蟹貨區個時大戶如果好想做佢上佢,佢要消化d 人放出來的貨,個時一係就超大成交做佢上去,一係係個區到排徊再收貨,好似雙底,三底咁,不過這些係後話。

你會問一個問題,成量交係一買一賣的成交結果,你論上係demand=supply。我這個理論係一位外國人所發明(Volume Spread Analysis),我可以話這個睇圖方法係最有率,因為我見所有高手最主要係得股價同成交量,指標係無乜點用。佢個理論背後就係因為股價係由大戶所操縱,所以個d 成交量係由大戶做出來。所以咁睇圖就可以知道大戶想做乜。但要注意這個方法唔識合用係太細的仙股亳子股咁,最好用 係流通量交多的股票上。

你睇HSI張圖,係約29000個時上左去又插返,即係好多蟹貨,你又見個到有支大大陰燭,同由supply主導,所以估佢要靠勁消息一野推佢上去,一係係個區到排徊再收貨。這個又即係解釋左點解破頂會一飛沖天。而家HSI升好似做緊雙底咁,佢係29000-26000係咁收貨,佢又跌唔去落去,所以我估無乜貨會沽出同佢近日成交咁少,又假期都升到,應該係由demand推動。睇圖最後加埋基礎分析,26000同HSI係合理價約18 p/e所以大戶想收集有demand一點都不出奇。後市我係睇好,加上我有重貨係正股到。

我可能解釋唔係太好,不過最主要係想大家明白股票的運動背後的理念。其它的example: 例子一 例子二(震倉)

回應銘記,我唔炒即市所以我都唔知。我通常都以日線圖為住,持股數星期至一個月以上,我方法係食股價的大浪,唔會係咁炒。我自己會睇小時圖,日線圖同週線圖為主。時間逾長個d signal就越準。最主要都係你想玩幾耐。尾時時的大單邊我有時都會睇,好似美國晚上出議息,香港地產股最尾個十幾分鐘會爆升,個時我覺得可信性較大。你話單邊走勢,如果係個股來講好多時會出現鎚頭(Hammer)的陰陽燭。我自己覺得鎚頭陰陽燭的可信性係高,但前提係要睇整個股走勢,有空再交流一下。

4 comments:

  1. thanks to you reply and time to digest! , But I also look at the blog or worksheet from 銘. His sheet is great ! thanks to all u guys
    BTW, where u learn the analysis skill ? or u studied finances in U ?

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  2. I study from books and forums in different countries. I didn't study finances in university, but I study and do my research in my spare time.

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  3. Have you studied Sky course ever before ? or all your study gained from your spare time and by yourself studying ?

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  4. No i haven't studied Sky's course before, but my friend did and his investment return is outstanding.
    I just learn it myself without attending any courses. You can have a look what i read in my spare time. http://yamworld-invest.blogspot.com/2007/11/blog-post_08.html

    ReplyDelete