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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

中國移動

琴日有朋友打來問我中國移動點睇,我當然話唔洗驚,最好跌多d 等我入貨。暫時睇法係3G的三張牌照法給三間公司,你可以話中國移動的3G優勢細左少少,但風險又平均左。我的睇法如下wcdma和cdma2000係非常成熟的技術,但國產td-scdma 就麻麻地。不過後者可能會平一點,同將來可能可以推廣到其它地方。

有兩樣野要注意,鐵通係做地線,佢係完整,對中國移動的發展係有幫助。大家最近都有廣告想手機同屋企電話合拼。至於其它又要攪上市的買賣,又要股東通過,都唔會咁快攪掂。中國移動的優勢一定係到,暫時無可能打死佢,見報紙又話乜無晒優勢真係攪笑。佢又唔係好似美國at&t咁俾政府分折唔同公司,又唔係好似香港電訊咁無晒市場專利(最賺錢的長途電話無左),點會咁快死人。大家諗下以前3G出時邊個會用,最多咪係打電話出同入。但有樣野不得不突,就係光纖到戶,這個可能係未來的大潮流,但我唔知咁合拼同中國移動有無用。

3G最大用處係佢的HSPA,即係無線boardband,同將來的mobile TV。我知道td-scdma已經測試成功,應該唔會對持牌者有太大技術問題。要建一個3G網絡都要兩年到,暫時睇唔到中國移動有乜問題,建網絡初實有問題,你一定要有2G網絡輔助,質素上中國移動佔優。新聯通的網絡客戶係低質數,但新聯通有晒銅線、光纖、WIFI、GSM/WCDMA業務牌照,未來有優勢,但需要好長好長的時間。

我其實都幾同意林森池的講法,中國一定要中國移動強大,走出中國好似Vodafone咁,對將來中國建交(幫人起通訊網絡)等有深遠影響力。

琴日睇返中國移動的IV,去到57%,係近年新高,如果開short put真係好時機,都證明左rsi低過三十,IV高,反彈機會好大,short 即月股票期權收期權金有著數。

Monday, May 19, 2008

股票期權 二



上文講到我會寫左個program分析下d 股票期權,琴日星期日一次個寫個晒d 程式入晒去MS Access database,好個用Excel。暫時入左一個月data,入到人都傻,係公司入入一唔小心洗晒d data又入過,不過最後攪掂。而家係用Excel plot 圖,直接係Access拿data,要乜code, date 等等一press 個button就有。有無用就唔知,不過本書話同上網d 人話IV好重要,所以入左e 部份data。

基本上大跌市時期權金會升, IV升,個時做short put好似幾好。本書有四大strategy。
1) Short Naked Put
2) Short spread put
3) Covered Call
4) Ratio call

暫時計過如果以我有廿幾萬現金同貨做期權,我可以每月有約二千玩收入。

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

股票期權

近日對研究股票期權,雖然好耐之前都有研究,但今日多左個朋友(Alex)抄期權,所以問佢d 問題方便好多,解答左我好多疑問。今次真係的起心肝慢慢入返d 數據入電腦再係Excel 寫左少少program去分析,發覺股票期權好有用。暫時睇書同研究左一樣野:

1) 用股票期權買入中國人壽,可以平成三分二咁多,咁樣如果林森池話三十八蚊樓下好平,點解我地唔用這個方法買入
2) 如果真係跌到傻,你咪行洗張股票期權接貨,補返差價接貨(同你當時買入正股的價差數百元only),然後坐貨lor....林森池話可以好安心坐嘛,唔洗驚。重點係唔怕坐貨,用股權溝貨
3) 如果買完真係升,你就發到變豬頭
4) 當然要某特別環境來做,暫時研究緊,方法好似可行,我會寫多個program試試
5) 因為你hold 住股票期權時用好少錢買,所以你可以有餘錢買其它野 或者放去銀行收下息。香港有成年後先到期的股票期權,放入去定期都得la...

股神畢菲特佢都有short put 的,唔好以為佢只係買正股!!!

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

預測

暫時我睇圖係睇日線圖為主力,但係發覺我只可以估到幾日的走勢,完全不是我想要的。我想要的係一個大浪,如數星期,所以我唯一的諗法係要用週線圖。我買大股多,只得數天的預測可以話無乜肉食。

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Daddy

2008年5月4日早上3:20分

放心,我地會一樣生活得好好。

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Bull & Bear

為甚麼是牛市?

在美國...
增加money supply係?經濟差的情況下發生...
增加money supply...減低interest...
在生意角度看成本低了...
在投資角度看bond value高了...從而股票價格變得相對給引...

香港沒有能力控制自已的monetary policy...
但在高通漲...經濟好...又跟隨減息下...
港幣會depreciate...
但資產價格...樓價跟股市就會上漲...

美國面對的是短期和中期financial market信心問題...
貝爾斯基是因為financial market短暫信心問題而借不到cash...並非市場其他銀行沒有cash...
美國政府做得很好就是很快做了擔保...解?了短期信心問題...和financial cashflow問題...
至於中期的...
美國銀行賠錢是因為bond market信心問題...
那些mortgage back securities 是變相derivatives...
因為市場信心...這些MBS市價跌得很厲害...加上有些MBS跟本沒有市價...
美國銀行只能在這刻大量撥備...
但撥備並不是realised loss...只要仍然有principal and interest repayment...
當信心回復時...就能回撥...

股票是買將來的...不是現在...沒有信心風險...?豐怎會有多於6厘股息...

irst of all... how do we define a bear market???

* In terms of fundamentals... GDP drop to -ve... unemployment rate rise... Lending money start to shrink... we cannot find all of these at present moment in Hong Kong...
* In terms of technicals... someone define it as index drops more than 20%... someone defines it as the 50MA dropping below 250MA...
* I have my own definition... I define it to be a dropping of index in around or more than 1 year of time...
* Thus...from my own definition... In last 20 years... the bear markets that HK experienced are...
* 94-95...97-98...00-03...
* I defined 87 and 89 as corrections only...


Now I will try to eliminate why the market is not bear at present...

* From my definition... if the market is bear... it has to drop below 20500 again...
* if it drops below 20500... it will be a prolonged dropping period... and will last for around a year from last Nov...
* However...we cannot see Hong Kong has the fundamental financial and economic environment to support the bear market...
* If there will be a bear market... it has to be influenced by US or mainland China...


Will US has a bear market???

* Surely the property market of US has dropped... however the major property stocks in US has already drop by around 50% which has reflect around 20% dropping in property price already...
* Keep in mind that the DowJone does not have major property stocks in it...


So is the sub-prime crisis gone already???

* My answer is that the investment banks is majorly impacted by both the cashflow raising difficulties... and the market value drop of the mortgage backed securities...
* The cashflow raising difficulties has been solved in the Bear Stern case from the Federal...
* Market value drop is a matter in faith... the reserve that has been made in the unrealised lose in the market value securities held by investment bank will improve in the future...


So what will make US going into recession???

* Continuous reduction in property price...
* Increasing in bad debts from other lending segments such as credit cards and personal loans...
* Substantial reduction in the consumer spending behaviour...
* I believe the chance in observing the above facts is not great... but there are still chances...


China market

* The bull market of China only start from mid 2005...
* if it is bear market right now... this will be the shortest bull market I have ever seen... and given current China fundamentals...


My portfolio

* I build up my portfolio when HSI was 22xxx... I believe there is 70% chance of bull market...


Portfolio Risk

* The risk is certainly the current market is bear market... if it is a bear market the HSI will drop below 20500 again in 3rd/4th quarter...
* the index may result in 16000 to 18000...


How to reduce the risk

* I will review the market environment in mid May to see whether the chance of Bear market increase or not...