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Thursday, March 8, 2007

2007-03-08 HSI (2nd Edition)



今次跌到剛剛好的resistance,同我預期跌到落17000點差好多。問題出現,現在入貨好似又遲左d,2628 , 3328 等中國股係咁升,又人話中國股升先到hsi ,唔知對不對la.. 。理論上而家的resistance 係難破,但佢咁快下試個resistance 又馬上反彈,係唔係個市咁強,下跌速度咁快,無理由咁快上返去。貪刺激做佢落去?

其次跌市應該係跌到d 人驚,成交量下降,市場變得靜好多,現在就剛好相反。真奇怪

一就係無跌市只係咁升,但無可能,....一個cycle 係無可能咁樣的。
二就係遲d 有大件野出 ,現在是技術性反彈。又可視作頭肩頂。
三突然係剛上睇到,就係好似2000年咁做個雙頂出來。如果係真就好扑街,因為會死好多人。最簡單就係假突破之前的高位,之後大跌。諗落都有可能,因為七月剛好回歸十週年,個市又好似97年咁樣,大吹突吹。 睇返技術分析,我記得點解我係06年五月中個浪會驚,因為我驚會雙頂。理由係成交量大減,要破之前的重要高位要有好的成交量併合,但係佢當時係無,要待突破後先出現大成交。今日我發覺佢一開始係破左高位,好快回落,慢慢係個水平徘徊,所以最後突破成功。

今次跌市有以下特點:

1. 今次跌市係有好大的成交量,根據我之前的想法係大跌市未來,或者是市底很強。
2. 係支持位好快反彈,只需要一日的時間。
3. 個市一樣好熱鬧,因為一個cycle 係靜變瘋的。
那麼怎知道係雙頂一係真突破?

1. 個市真係靜左(好難係成交量見到,因為雙頂都係會比之前個成交量底)--- 參照之前我的文章
2. 係高位徘徊整固( 幾耐先算同點樣呢? ) 雙頂可能好快咁反彈返去,但真正突破係慢慢來。加上雙頂個成交只係較之前少,重點唔係變靜。
3. 通常唔會勁個之前高位(但有假突破)
所以都係諗唔到

回顧之前的諗法,係十一月中個時恒指係19xx 水平徘徊,成交量係高左,而且俾五月中的及九月的成交量高,所以當時有個諗法係大市見頂,個市d 股都好貴,但實在大錯特錯。期後的成交量更大。有個共通點係:
1. ipo 多左
2. 多左抽水股
3. 細價股係咁升
4. 個市有高又低 ,(角度好重要,特然加快上升角度要留心)


真係頭都痛,唔知點攪好

Sunday, March 4, 2007

2007-03-02 Global Analysis

frankly, for most full time traders, this "analysis" is just simple as ABC. the most difficult part is learning to be humble and bend your knees, follow the market obediently (whether you like it or not), just like a dog chasing a bone which is threw away by its master...
"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b742$1@hkux.net...
another sharp analysis !! Good!
"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b5df$1@hkux.net...
if there is no USD diversification undertaking at present, unwinding of yen crosses should have already sent GBP below 1.92, EUR 1.28. USD/CAD below 1.18/1.19 is another sign of dollar weakness...
"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b448@hkux.net...
Good point, sound logical, maybe that's also part of the deal in the China visit last year
"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b3b7$1@hkux.net...
don't forget Ben has to keep interest rate at relative high levels to stabilize USD helping global CB to reduce USD holdings! if USD diversification were happening at a FED fund rate of 2-3%, we would have seen USD index at 70 some months ago...
"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b1ae$1@hkux.net...
rich poeple holding most USD assets.
I am not sure of this point but I like your analysis in the whole paragraph, good logic
"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9af29$1@hkux.net...
6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut rate
cut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4
remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?
subprime market = poor people, and rich poeple holding most USD assets, will you sacrifice the value of USD to save the poor? by the way, cutting rate=injection into stox mkt which is incompatible with the engineered slow down of stox mkt. crude but true fact...
"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9a5d9@hkux.net...
"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9a3d4$1@hkux.net...
"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e99f2e$1@hkux.net...
1. why Greenspan gave such speech in early this week
believe or not, this is a engineered "cool down" by G7, to slow the stock mkt esp in euro and emerging mkt in asia
80% of what I am thinking
2. how the yen would move further
multi-week 115-120 consolidation before next move to 110
I have no strong view on this currently
3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will react
even after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%
Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?
4. what is the position of the fund who has jumped on the bandwagon to long gold, believing 700 is the next stop, has they cut their loss or still holding the buck?
funds are forced to buy gold at whatever price because of the tremendous increase of subscription, and large funds are actually buying with very low leverage, their cut loss or not is not a issue here
So it worked both ways? and forced to sell in redemptions? How about those momentum buyers?
5. how DJIA, S&P 500, Shanghai, BRIC/emerging markets will react, any margin calls to meet in these markets for the fund managers, next LTCM, Red Kite (unlikely as at today)?
don't worry, we're only dealing with healthy stox corrections not crashes..
Not sure, but tend to agree
6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut rate
cut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4
remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?
plenty of food for thought in the weekend
Charts are useful, but to me, Charts without fundamental doesn't sound good enough to me

3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will react
even after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%
Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?
this is indeed very important, we have to differentiate between a cyclical partial unwinding and structural unwinding of yen crosses may carry total different implications to stox mkt, at present, still expect a range of G/J 220-250 in 2007

Saturday, March 3, 2007

心理+資金=趨勢

想起德國股神的金句:心理+資金=趨勢 現時似乎心理(市場情緒)和資金(日圓 銀行同業拆息)均有流走的跡象...