1. why Greenspan gave such speech in early this week
believe or not, this is a engineered "cool down" by G7, to slow the stock mkt esp in euro and emerging mkt in asia
80% of what I am thinking
2. how the yen would move further
multi-week 115-120 consolidation before next move to 110
I have no strong view on this currently
3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will react
even after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%
Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?
4. what is the position of the fund who has jumped on the bandwagon to long gold, believing 700 is the next stop, has they cut their loss or still holding the buck?
funds are forced to buy gold at whatever price because of the tremendous increase of subscription, and large funds are actually buying with very low leverage, their cut loss or not is not a issue here
So it worked both ways? and forced to sell in redemptions? How about those momentum buyers?
5. how DJIA, S&P 500, Shanghai, BRIC/emerging markets will react, any margin calls to meet in these markets for the fund managers, next LTCM, Red Kite (unlikely as at today)?
don't worry, we're only dealing with healthy stox corrections not crashes..
Not sure, but tend to agree
6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut rate
cut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4
remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?
plenty of food for thought in the weekend
Charts are useful, but to me, Charts without fundamental doesn't sound good enough to me
3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will react
even after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%
Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?
this is indeed very important, we have to differentiate between a cyclical partial unwinding and structural unwinding of yen crosses may carry total different implications to stox mkt, at present, still expect a range of G/J 220-250 in 2007
