買入 瑞安 272.hk

本來都唔想買....SET 左個價..明日就狂插...真係wtf。
又要坐boat

琴日睇返佢份annual report, 前景應該ok，最少容易睇。佢地段有上海，坑洲，重慶等地，發展應該好好，但可能要幾長的時間。上海睇佢個勢係重點開發，只要中國地產ok，問題不大。加上有東尼推介，我都信得佢ge.....

股資教訓

3328 短炒唔係太成功，入股太少，要學下position sizing。1800 普普通通，大市跌，乜都跌，所以短炒都最後估後市。3328我諗當佢出A 股個時就會發力，而家應該唔上唔落。
今後我諗我要大膽d 買股票，尤其一日之落大跌5% 之後又升返晒個d 優質股，好似3968咁樣。計個d 基礎分析要快點，唔係唔知就入唔到市。
突然係網到俾我一個啟發，就係有個人每年只入一次股票，真係高手中的高手。

買入 中國交通建設

一早係公司買入左1800.HK。睇住個市，一開始上到$10.5 之後慢慢跌落去，諗住$10.2 之後買唔到變$10.3 之後佢去到10.4 諗諗下變唔變10.4 追佢呢。
之後問下我同學，佢係msn 人肉報價機，佢話9.8 - 10 先好買，市跌先買。琴日有看到一篇文話10.5 有大阻力。就係我諗唔諗住取消個command時就買左，以家輸緊錢，有點驚。可能要回到10 蚊補返個裂口位先得。

心理壓力好大，所以d 人話paper trade 係無乜用就係咁解。

其它策略係抽新股，個舊錢慢慢儲到大，等調整或者股災來，今次日線rsi 一到超買就要買la..唔係又走寶。可能佢會再跌，但係平均買入法嘛，唔好為左少少錢而乜都無買咁慘。

Successful Swing Trading

No two patterns behave alike. Triangles and pennants are ideal shapes that rarely occur with perfection in the real world.

Three strikes and you’re out. Price should break out of a pattern no later than the third time a key price point is tested, to the upside or downside. Failure of price to reach the third test in either direction favors a breakout in the opposite direction.

Use the rule of alternation to predict how a pattern will develop. Corrections should alternate between simple and complex shapes in a series of impulses.

Every pattern has an underlying positive or negative appearance that represents the likely outcome. So if it looks bullish or bearish, it probably is.

The sharp breakout above an ascending triangle often signals the climax of an entire series of rallies.

Rising wedges can lead to very powerful upside breakouts, but they are too undependable to enter until the move is underway.

Demand perfection on the inverse head and shoulders reversal. They attract attention only when every rule is fulfilled: the neckline must line up correctly, the two shoulder lows must be at the same price, and the breakout must pierce other known resistance (MAs, gaps, etc.) on high volume.

Double triangles that form after strong rallies are very bullish for a new move of equal size to the one that occurred just before the first triangle.

The contraction in price range and volatility that follows a new pattern seeks a natural balance point corresponding with the location of the new impulse. Use Bollinger Bands and rate of change indicators to identify this pivot in advance.

Every pattern is a solvable puzzle defined by support, resistance, and volatility. Look for highs and lows to point to a natural exit spot in time. Volatility should decrease into this apex and expand out of it.

Volume should dry up as each of the three rallies comprising the head and shoulders pattern uses up all the available bull power. The lower the volume on the right shoulder rally, the higher the odds that the neckline will eventually break.

Excellent long trades on the head and shoulders can be initiated at the right shoulder neckline when accumulation diverges positively from the bearish pattern. Also watch closely when the neckline breaks but price immediately pops back above it and indicates that few stops were waiting.

The deeper the downslope of the head and shoulders neckline, the greater the prospect for a bearish break. Stay away from ascending necklines completely. These patterns easily evolve into sideways motion.

Calculate the Fibonacci relationship between the left shoulder peak and the head length of the head and shoulders pattern. If the left shoulder topped at a Fib retracement such as 62%, the right shoulder should go no higher and may be a good short sale entry point.

Sping Coil

Trade preparation requires close visual inspection of the congestion. Look for overall narrowing range over time rather than an isolated NR7 print. Check proportionality of the current range to the preceding trend. As the old wisdom states, the bigger the move, the broader the base. If RSI or Stochastics just begins to roll off the overbought state, the congestion likely has a long way to go before it can absorb the last rally. Remember that the most promising patterns slowly narrow toward a natural apex or ejection point before a major breakout.Volume must trend downward as congestion progresses. The lower-pane histogram should show declining interest with few jagged upticks. Intervening volume spikes that do not trigger immediate expansion reduce the odds of a clean breakout. General price direction should counter the prevailing trend but not accelerate to the downside. The most powerful trends will erupt after a correction that does not violate any significant S/R. Use Fibonacci and moving averages to cross-verify the terminus of this countertrend extreme

買交行 3328.hk

今日買左交行，係公司set command買。價位係8.33。一手咁大把
有機會坐艘，不過好股，衰左當買教訓。
技術分析琴日睇個時好好，買左再睇有小小問題，可能要回一回先再上。
今次咁勇係希望可以打破自己的心理關口(太小心),攪到自己唔咁入。下次可能買347 / 358 不過睇下到時點la...

2007-04-08 大市睇法

今次有點睇錯市，不過唔緊要。今次跌完有點不尋常係個市唔夠靜，好快就有返人氣。有其會做雙頂加假突破之後來個大跌。我暫時都諗唔到理由佢會跌落去，唯有抄股不抄市。

2007-03-08 HSI (2nd Edition)

今次跌到剛剛好的resistance，同我預期跌到落17000點差好多。問題出現，現在入貨好似又遲左d，2628 , 3328 等中國股係咁升，又人話中國股升先到hsi ，唔知對不對la.. 。理論上而家的resistance 係難破，但佢咁快下試個resistance 又馬上反彈，係唔係個市咁強，下跌速度咁快，無理由咁快上返去。貪刺激做佢落去?

其次跌市應該係跌到d 人驚，成交量下降，市場變得靜好多，現在就剛好相反。真奇怪

一就係無跌市只係咁升，但無可能,....一個cycle 係無可能咁樣的。
二就係遲d 有大件野出 ，現在是技術性反彈。又可視作頭肩頂。
三突然係剛上睇到，就係好似2000年咁做個雙頂出來。如果係真就好扑街，因為會死好多人。最簡單就係假突破之前的高位，之後大跌。諗落都有可能，因為七月剛好回歸十週年，個市又好似97年咁樣，大吹突吹。 睇返技術分析，我記得點解我係06年五月中個浪會驚，因為我驚會雙頂。理由係成交量大減，要破之前的重要高位要有好的成交量併合，但係佢當時係無，要待突破後先出現大成交。今日我發覺佢一開始係破左高位，好快回落，慢慢係個水平徘徊，所以最後突破成功。

今次跌市有以下特點:
1. 今次跌市係有好大的成交量，根據我之前的想法係大跌市未來，或者是市底很強。
2. 係支持位好快反彈，只需要一日的時間。
3. 個市一樣好熱鬧，因為一個cycle 係靜變瘋的。
那麼怎知道係雙頂一係真突破？

1. 個市真係靜左（好難係成交量見到，因為雙頂都係會比之前個成交量底）--- 參照之前我的文章
2. 係高位徘徊整固( 幾耐先算同點樣呢? ) 雙頂可能好快咁反彈返去，但真正突破係慢慢來。加上雙頂個成交只係較之前少，重點唔係變靜。
3. 通常唔會勁個之前高位(但有假突破)
所以都係諗唔到

回顧之前的諗法，係十一月中個時恒指係19xx 水平徘徊，成交量係高左，而且俾五月中的及九月的成交量高，所以當時有個諗法係大市見頂，個市d 股都好貴，但實在大錯特錯。期後的成交量更大。有個共通點係:
1. ipo 多左
2. 多左抽水股
3. 細價股係咁升
4. 個市有高又低 ，(角度好重要，特然加快上升角度要留心)


真係頭都痛，唔知點攪好

2007-03-02 Global Analysis

frankly, for most full time traders, this "analysis" is just simple as ABC. the most difficult part is learning to be humble and bend your knees, follow the market obediently (whether you like it or not), just like a dog chasing a bone which is threw away by its master...

"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b742$1@hkux.net...

another sharp analysis !! Good!

"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b5df$1@hkux.net...

if there is no USD diversification undertaking at present, unwinding of yen crosses should have already sent GBP below 1.92, EUR 1.28. USD/CAD below 1.18/1.19 is another sign of dollar weakness...

"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b448@hkux.net...

Good point, sound logical, maybe that's also part of the deal in the China visit last year

"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b3b7$1@hkux.net...

don't forget Ben has to keep interest rate at relative high levels to stabilize USD helping global CB to reduce USD holdings! if USD diversification were happening at a FED fund rate of 2-3%, we would have seen USD index at 70 some months ago...

"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9b1ae$1@hkux.net...

rich poeple holding most USD assets.

I am not sure of this point but I like your analysis in the whole paragraph, good logic

"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9af29$1@hkux.net...

6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut rate

cut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4

remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?

subprime market = poor people, and rich poeple holding most USD assets, will you sacrifice the value of USD to save the poor? by the way, cutting rate=injection into stox mkt which is incompatible with the engineered slow down of stox mkt. crude but true fact...

"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9a5d9@hkux.net...

"Vienna GD" <Vienna_GD@hotmail.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e9a3d4$1@hkux.net...

"Henry@Happy Trading, Happy Gambling" <1@1.com> 撰寫於郵件新聞:45e99f2e$1@hkux.net...

1. why Greenspan gave such speech in early this week

believe or not, this is a engineered "cool down" by G7, to slow the stock mkt esp in euro and emerging mkt in asia

80% of what I am thinking

2. how the yen would move further

multi-week 115-120 consolidation before next move to 110

I have no strong view on this currently

3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will react

even after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%

Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?

4. what is the position of the fund who has jumped on the bandwagon to long gold, believing 700 is the next stop, has they cut their loss or still holding the buck?

funds are forced to buy gold at whatever price because of the tremendous increase of subscription, and large funds are actually buying with very low leverage, their cut loss or not is not a issue here

So it worked both ways? and forced to sell in redemptions? How about those momentum buyers?

5. how DJIA, S&P 500, Shanghai, BRIC/emerging markets will react, any margin calls to meet in these markets for the fund managers, next LTCM, Red Kite (unlikely as at today)?

don't worry, we're only dealing with healthy stox corrections not crashes..

Not sure, but tend to agree

6. Would Bern do anything with CPI currently still above 2%, interest rate cut is out of question, push the M3 to 20% annually? Will he try to make up a figure of 1.5% or below in the following month to give him a perfect excuse to cut rate

cut rate = accelerate the decline of USD which could push CPI>3%, bet no rate cut until Q4

remove some "volatile" components in the CPI and mark it down to 2% then, they have made similar adjustment b4, and it won't be the last one. Economy or the USD, something has to give. Did I hear "Regretably..." in 1987?

plenty of food for thought in the weekend

Charts are useful, but to me, Charts without fundamental doesn't sound good enough to me

3. what is the liquidity situation and thus how all asset market will react

even after BOJ raise 0.25% 2 more time, interest rate is only 0.75%, where can you find an alternative funding ccy with interest rate <1%

Japan is only part of the whole liquidity picture. Moreover, interest rate is not the current market focus. The focus may change soon, but why make up your own mind b4 the market tell you to do so?

this is indeed very important, we have to differentiate between a cyclical partial unwinding and structural unwinding of yen crosses may carry total different implications to stox mkt, at present, still expect a range of G/J 220-250 in 2007

心理+資金=趨勢

想起德國股神的金句：心理+資金=趨勢 現時似乎心理(市場情緒)和資金(日圓 銀行同業拆息)均有流走的跡象...

2007-02-28 HSI Forecast Review

今日hsi 半場跌左五百幾點，唔算特別多,但美股就跌左成四百幾點，真係估都估唔到至9/11以來最多的一次。記得06年十一月我估會係一月尾左右有調整,但係遲遲都無發生,重要係狂升。二月中左右我話三月尾到應該會調整,但係二月尾好似就全球有小小調整。雖然暫時都唔可以肯定香港會唔會跌唔落去,但可以肯定買細股個重危險同自己stragery management 和睇圖技術有點兒幫助。你話我時間有誤，但我可以唔怕誘惑都係靠自己的基本分析同技術分析得來的結果能我有信心可以等待再待待。

睇圖學到唔係時常睇到有賣出同入的訊號，要耐心等待訊號的出現。十一月個時就係太早認為會有調整，但其實最強的訊號係二月中先出現。基礎分析可以能我知道隻股係唔係貴同平，增加命中率。

我唔係太驚今次的跌市，我會再研究一下，但而家一定唔係入貨好時機。今次明白股票最重要係認得忍---等待大市的機會。

2007-02-24 480.HK, 2727.hk

480.hk
hanning man 係頂，個volume 好似比之前個頂細左小小。
全部SMA 都散開向上。
向上角度輕微加快。
每次大WRB都會有個大成交之後慢慢上。
Volume 向上成交少左。
緊書講個臨介點好似唔係好好。
個規律係升升升，跌跌跌...好有過山車feel。

2727.hk
好似幾好....上升運動好似幾有規律。成交量係阻力位有點上升，唔係一下升一下跌，波幅尚算正常。但係都要等待時機，因為個佢doji 都幾大

Volume precedes Price

成交一般走在價位前面，再見頂成交是不需要出新高的，如果出新高成交，那麽代表看錯市，高位還沒有出。今年藍籌最高成交日是2月8日，成交261億。
（去年4月28日，藍籌成交是285億，其中有154億是883配股，可以不算。）
回顧對上2次，97年8月7日，大市見頂，成交也是新高，但是1，5，13，16（應該是當時最大的4支股票）的成交却創不了新高。
2000年3月28日，期指結算前2日，指數出新高，成交新高在2月15日已經出了。而1，5，8（最風光時的8號仔），13，16，941，6大藍籌沒有一支的成交可以再出新高。

3938.HK Samling Global Limited

I have read the annaul report in office this afternoon, quick glance:

Pros

• Good prospective
• Strong growth

Cons

• 06' Profit dramitcally decreased due to prolonged raining season and high fuel oil cost.

http://www.hkex.com.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20070223/LTN20070223016.htm

1886.HK 匯源果汁

剛剛睇過佢個prospectuses report.發覺佢會用IPO 所得來的錢去expand 自己間公司。即係佢的負責都幾高下。雖然果汁市場又成最少18%增長,前景好好,但係competior 好多,門檻較低, 市場需要整固。綜合來講,即係間公司將來一係好掂, 如果攪唔掂就實玩完。佢有幾家機構買入左佢好股份,理論上唔掂極都有個普。而家係office 望住我隻1886 IPO 升左成6x% 唔知放好呀..一係長keep 好呢? 佢定價又高..都唔知點攪

http://www.hkex.com.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20070208/LTN20070208085.htm